Dampak Tingkat Suku Bunga Acuan Bank Indonesia Terhadap Konsumsi Rumah Tangga Muslim di Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of Bank Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) on the consumption patterns of Muslim households in Indonesia during the period 2010–2024. It employs a quantitative approach using quarterly time series data and a non-parametric difference test (Mann–Whitney U), complemented by a SWOT analysis to assess internal and external factors influencing consumption resilience. The findings reveal a significant negative relationship between increases in the BI Rate and Muslim household consumption, which is further reinforced by the prohibition of riba (interest) and limited access to Islamic financing. However, internal strengths such as a preference for halal products, support from religious communities, and discipline in sharia-based financial management help maintain consumption stability under certain conditions. Externally, opportunities such as the growth of Islamic finance, digitalization, and government initiatives promoting financial inclusion help mitigate threats such as inflation, exchange rate volatility, and consumerist lifestyles. Consequently, the SWOT analysis positions the strategic response of Muslim households in Quadrant I (aggressive strategy).